Across the industrialized nations of the OECD, a disconcerting trend is emerging: a decline in foundational literacy and numeracy skills among adults. While the world marvels at technological leaps in artificial intelligence and automation, a silent crisis is brewing, threatening to exacerbate social and economic inequalities.
The very skills needed to navigate this increasingly complex world, critically evaluate information, and adapt to evolving job markets appear to be waning in the countries that pioneered modern education.
An OECD report presents findings from the 2023 Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC), examining literacy, numeracy, and problem-solving skills across OECD countries.
The uneven landscape of skill decline
This decline is not uniform. Certain countries, like Finland and Denmark, stand out as beacons of progress, demonstrating significant improvements in literacy and numeracy over the past decade.
Finland, in particular, has achieved remarkable gains, with average literacy scores rising by 15 points and numeracy scores by an impressive 17 points. These successes suggest that a decline is not inevitable, and implementing effective strategies can bolster essential skills in the population.
However, the successes of a few are overshadowed by a concerning downward trend in many other OECD nations. Korea, Lithuania, New Zealand, and Poland have experienced the most significant drops in average literacy proficiency, each plummeting over 20 points. Lithuania’s decline, at 28 points, is especially alarming. While numeracy trends are generally more positive, Lithuania and Poland again stand out with substantial losses, highlighting a worrying pattern in these nations.
Even more concerning than declining averages is the widening skills gap within countries. The proficiency of the top 10% of the population is increasing faster than the rest, leading to concerns about certain groups being left behind.
This trend suggests that while some individuals are thriving in the knowledge economy, others are struggling to keep pace. This could potentially lead to a stratified society where access to opportunity is increasingly determined by skill level.
Technology, demographics, and education
Pinpointing the exact cause of this skill decline is a complex endeavor. However, several factors emerge as potential contributors. The increasing reliance on technology, while offering many benefits, may also be playing a role in eroding specific basic skills. As artificial intelligence takes over routine tasks, individuals may lose opportunities to practice and refine foundational skills. While valuable, spellcheck and grammar correction tools could reduce the need for individuals to engage with the mechanics of writing actively. Similarly, the ubiquitous use of calculators might contribute to a decline in basic numeracy abilities.
Demographic shifts also contribute to the observed patterns. Declines in average skill levels are largely attributed to falling proficiency among the lowest-performing adults, many of whom have below upper-secondary education. This underscores the importance of targeted interventions to support those at risk of skill decline. Additionally, while a positive reflection of societal progress, an aging population could contribute to overall declines as cognitive skills tend to decline with age.
Immigration, another key demographic factor, presents a mixed picture. While some countries experience a positive impact on average skill levels due to immigration, others see a widening gap between native-born and foreign-born populations. This suggests that successfully integrating immigrants into the education system and workforce is crucial for maximizing immigration benefits while mitigating potential negative impacts on skill levels.
Examining the education system itself is critical. While educational attainment has increased in recent decades, this has not necessarily translated into commensurate gains in literacy and numeracy. This suggests that a focus on quality, not just quantity, of education is essential. Teacher training, curriculum development, and creating engaging learning environments are crucial in fostering strong foundational skills.
A course toward improvement
Addressing this skills decline requires a multifaceted approach involving individuals, policymakers, and educational institutions. Individuals must recognize the importance of maintaining and developing foundational skills. Engaging in activities challenging cognitive abilities, such as reading, writing, problem-solving, and critical thinking, is crucial for lifelong learning and adaptability.
Policymakers have a vital role in creating an environment conducive to skill development. Investing in high-quality early childhood education programs lays a strong foundation for future learning and can mitigate the impact of socioeconomic disadvantage. Ensuring access to affordable and effective adult education and training programs can help individuals upskill or reskill to meet the demands of the changing labor market. Promoting digital literacy skills while mitigating potential negative impacts on foundational skills is critical for navigating the digital age.
Educational institutions must adapt to the changing landscape of skills demand. Focusing on developing critical thinking, problem-solving, and creativity alongside foundational literacy and numeracy skills will equip students for the future workforce. Incorporating technology thoughtfully into the classroom and using it to enhance rather than replace core skills is essential.
Investing in human potential
The decline in basic skills in OECD countries is not a mere statistic but a warning sign. Failure to address this trend risks exacerbating social and economic inequalities, hampering economic growth, and undermining informed civic engagement. Investing in human potential through education, training, and lifelong learning is not just a moral imperative but an economic and social necessity. The countries that prioritize the development of a skilled and adaptable population will thrive in the increasingly complex world of the 21st century.
OECD (2024), Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World?: Survey of Adult Skills 2023, OECD Skills Studies, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/b263dc5d-en.
