
A new study by EIT Urban Mobility offers a detailed look at how European cities can meet the ambitious Green Deal targets for the transport sector by 2030 and 2050. The study simulates three transition scenarios across twelve European city prototypes and reveals that sustainable urban mobility is within reach but requires substantial investments and bold urban planning.
The study, an update of a 2021 report, includes more mobility measures, different impact dimensions, and a new baseline for the simulation. The findings highlight the need for technological innovation, policy changes, and a shift in citizen behavior to achieve a climate-neutral economy.
Methodology and scenarios
The study uses a strategic assessment tool called momos (sustainable urban mobility model) to simulate the impacts of different mobility transition scenarios. The model considers various factors, including city size, geographic location, transport infrastructure, and citizens’ attitudes. Twelve city prototypes representing different dimensions (small, medium, and large) and geographic areas (northern, central, southern, and eastern Europe) of European cities are made. These prototypes allow for a generalized view of the entire EU27 context.
Three scenarios are established, each with a specific combination of policy measures:

Scenario 1, “Infrastructure and mobility services,” focuses on inducing sustainable mobility behavior through information, incentives for active mobility, enhanced public transport, and the promotion of shared mobility. It does not include measures that restrict car use.

Scenario 2, “regulation and demand management,” limits private vehicle access to cities through low emission and limited traffic zones, introduces road charging in medium and large cities, and introduces traffic calming in small cities. It also includes pricing schemes, transport avoidance measures, and freight urban logistics.

Scenario 3, “zero-emissions,” intensifies the policies from the previous scenarios to achieve the Green Deal targets of reducing CO2 emissions by 55% by 2030 and 90% by 2050. It combines regulations, behavioral incentives, and infrastructure improvements.
Investment and costs
The study reveals that 2030 technology improvements alone lead to a 21% CO2 emission reduction compared to 2022 levels, leaving a significant emission gap. However, achieving the Green Deal’s 55% target requires substantial financial commitment. By 2050, at least €1.5 trillion is needed to meet the Green Deal objectives for the transport sector in European cities. This includes €500 billion in investments for implementing and managing various policies, generating around €300 billion in revenues and €1.3 trillion in user costs. The implementation and management costs are highest in scenario three due to the comprehensive package of policies. However, user costs are lower in scenarios 2 and 3 compared to scenario one due to the shift towards more efficient modes of transport.
According to the study, the total net costs of the three scenarios range between €194 billion and €385 billion by 2030 and surpass €1,500 billion by 2050.
The study emphasizes that costs should not be considered in isolation, stating that “the benefits are 1.5 times higher than the costs.” The model includes an estimation of implementation and management costs, user costs (including private vehicle costs), and revenues generated from services like parking fees.
Environmental benefits
Despite the significant investment needed, the study projects substantial environmental benefits. The most ambitious scenario (scenario 3) is the only one that meets the Green Deal objective by 2030, achieving a 62.3% CO2 emission reduction from 2022 levels. This scenario could drive substantial changes in urban mobility, with a significant shift in how people move.
Through technology innovations, vehicle fleet replacement, and policy measures, all three scenarios can reach the Green Deal target by 2050.
The study also highlights the importance of modal shift. In scenario three, the private motorized modal share decreases by 16% by 2030, shifting toward public transport, walking, cycling, and shared mobility.
The combination of infrastructure improvements, access regulation, and pricing measures is crucial for achieving this change. By 2050, the study anticipates reductions of approximately 95-98% in CO2 emissions across the three scenarios.
The study also projects a significant reduction in air pollutants such as PM2.5. Combining vehicle fleet renewal and modal shift can cut particulate matter emissions from transport by up to 61% in 2030 and 70% by 2050 in scenario three.
Health and safety improvements
The report details significant public health benefits resulting from a shift toward more active modes of transport. The study shows that cumulative health savings could reach up to €1,170 per capita by 2050 because of the more active lifestyles encouraged by walking and cycling. It also anticipates reducing road traffic fatalities by up to 70% by 2050 due to safer infrastructure and the adoption of intelligent transport systems.
In terms of road safety, scenario 3, implementing traffic calming measures, pedestrian areas, and cooperative intelligent transport systems (its), is projected to reduce road traffic deaths by 70% by 2050 compared to 2022 levels.
Policy recommendations
The study underscores the critical role of a regulatory framework, stating that the “regulatory framework needs to allow cities to take the necessary sustainable mobility measures…required to meet decarbonization targets”. It advocates for long-term national and European funding for clean transport vehicles and emphasizes that investments should prioritize reliable and affordable alternatives like public transport, cycling, and shared mobility.
The study also points out that public transport should be a priority for a fair and sustainable urban mobility transition. “Public transportation provides an ideal compromise between CO2 emission reductions and investments, but also is the only inclusive mobility option for all segments of the population,” the study notes. Public transport is an affordable option for inclusive and low CO2 emissions and is one of the most realistic and practicable approaches to meeting Green Deal objectives.
The study highlights that while supply-side measures to offer more mobility options are important, they are insufficient to curb private motorized transport. A combination of infrastructure rollout with access regulation and pricing is needed to achieve the highest reduction in private car mode share.
Yoann le Petit, the study’s thought leadership manager at EIT Urban Mobility and author, commented, “The international Reducing CO2 Emissions Day reminds us of the critical role cities play in tackling climate change. Our study shows that investing in sustainable urban mobility systems pays off, with the benefits being 1.5 times higher than the costs. As Europe races to meet its climate goals, our study aims to serve as a roadmap for policymakers, city planners, and stakeholders to navigate the complex challenges and opportunities ahead”.
The EIT Urban Mobility study comprehensively analyzes the costs and benefits of transitioning to sustainable urban mobility. It underscores that while substantial investments are required, the long-term environmental, health and economic benefits far outweigh the costs. The report advocates for technological innovation, bold policy measures, and a shift in citizen behavior to achieve a climate-neutral future.
The study provides valuable insights for policymakers, city planners, and stakeholders looking to navigate the complexities of urban mobility in the face of climate change, offering a roadmap towards a more sustainable and livable future for European cities.
