Trump’s return casts a pall on global climate efforts.
The 29th annual Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations climate agreement, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, unfolded under a heavy shadow of uncertainty and skepticism.
Global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to reach record levels in 2024, increasing by 0.8% from 2023. This trend is driven by increased fossil fuel use, particularly in India and other developing countries, offsetting emission reductions in the United States and Europe.
“Violent weather is inflicting human tragedy and economic destruction worldwide,” said António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations at COP29. “And efforts to limit the rise in global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius are slipping away. We need a massive global effort to steer our world onto a path to safety; a path to net zero by mid-century.”
While negotiators did achieve a significant milestone by agreeing on long-awaited rules for international carbon markets – allowing nations to offset their emissions by investing in reduction projects in other countries – a sense of suspicion prevailed.
The return of Donald J. Trump to the White House and his anticipated rollback of U.S. climate policies dominated discussions, raising concerns about the future of global climate action.
Trump’s return brings additional concerns
Trump’s victory has amplified global apprehension about America’s wavering commitment to tackling climate change. His campaign vow to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement for the third time this century, combined with his pro-fossil fuel stance encapsulated in the slogan “drill, baby, drill,” signals a potential U-turn on the progress achieved during the Biden administration’s push for renewable energy.
This policy shift has left many world leaders grappling with how to bolster efforts to curb global warming without the active participation of the world’s leading economic and political powers.
Oil and Gas interests assert their influence
The prominent role played by oil and gas interests, especially those from Gulf countries, adds another layer of complexity to the climate summit.
The host nation, Azerbaijan, heavily relies on oil and gas, deriving 90% of its export earnings from these fossil fuels. Its president, Ilham Aliyev, has faithfully defended the nation’s dependence on these energy sources, proclaiming fossil fuels as a “gift from God” and criticizing what he perceives as “double standards” from developed nations on climate issues.
This assertive stance, combined with the notable presence of high-ranking fossil fuel executives at COP29, including leaders from companies like ExxonMobil, BP, TotalEnergies, Saudi Aramco, and Sinopec, underscores the significant influence wielded by the oil and gas industry at the summit.
China steps into the climate leadership vacuum
The potential retreat of the U.S. from global climate leadership under Trump has created a void that China appears ready to fill. China’s steadfast commitment to the Paris Agreement and its substantial investments in renewable energy have positioned it as a frontrunner in the worldwide shift toward clean energy sources.
As the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gasses, China’s actions hold immense sway in the global climate arena. China may capitalize on this opportunity to promote its cutting-edge clean energy technologies and solidify its role as an international climate leader, particularly in developing nations seeking assistance with their energy transition.
The financing battleground
Securing sufficient climate finance has emerged as a consequential point of contention at COP29. Developing countries are pressing wealthy nations, especially those with a long history of high emissions, to commit trillions of dollars annually to support their climate adaptation and mitigation initiatives.
However, this demand has met with resistance, as developed countries seek to distribute the financial burden more equitably, urging nations like China and Saudi Arabia – classified as developing nations under current U.N. frameworks – to shoulder a bigger share of the responsibility.
Despite ambitious targets, the EU faces challenges in funding its green transition. Red tape, supply chain issues, and the need to compete with cheaper Chinese panels have slowed the shift to renewable energy in some countries.
Historically, the U.S. has often fallen short of its climate finance pledges, and a Trump administration is unlikely to prioritize financial contributions toward global climate action.
A looming threat of a global climate disaster
Many new obstacles are hindering efforts to rein in global emissions. Despite pledges to transition away from fossil fuels, global carbon dioxide emissions originating from fossil fuels are projected to reach unprecedented levels in 2024.
Existing climate policies are predicted to result in alarming levels of warming this century, significantly exceeding the targets established in the Paris Agreement. These worrying trends, exacerbated by the anticipated setbacks stemming from a second Trump administration, fuel concerns about the potential global climate catastrophe.
A ray of hope
Amidst the sad outlook, there are glimmers of hope. The agreement on Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement, which provides a framework for international carbon trading, holds the potential to unlock substantial financial resources for climate action and accelerate emissions reduction efforts.
Despite the overall rise in emissions, the rapid growth of solar and wind power, particularly in China and Europe, demonstrates the potential for renewable energy to displace fossil fuels.
The raised awareness of the dangers posed by methane emissions and the development of innovative technologies for monitoring and mitigating leaks present opportunities for tangible progress. Growing public awareness and concern about climate change are putting pressure on governments and businesses to act. This pressure could lead to stronger policies, increased investment in climate solutions, and a shift in consumer behavior towards sustainable choices
However, capitalizing on these opportunities necessitates sustained global commitment, decisive action, and the courage to challenge powerful vested interests entrenched within the fossil fuel industry. The outcomes of COP29 and the world’s response to Trump’s return to the global stage will be pivotal in determining whether humanity can successfully avert a climate catastrophe.
